2022 Midterm Elections Not Far Away: Possibility of a Polar Opposite of 2018 Results

We are only two weeks into President Biden’s 4-year term, and he has signed 47 Executive Orders on a range of issues. As more Senators and Representatives announce their retirements after the 2022 midterm elections, what does the playing field look like for both parties now that Donald Trump is no longer in the White House?

The United States House of Representatives is the most vulnerable for the Democratic Party. In 2020, in which the Democrats took both the Senate and the White House, the Republicans gained more than a dozen seats in the House of Representatives, with two of the crucial seats being in New York. This could mean that the Republicans are on the path to a majority in 2022, with the end result being Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the current House Minority Leader and Leader of the House Republican Conference.

The United States Senate is currently the most vulnerable to the Republican Party, a surprise for a midterm year during a Democratic White House. Several key Republicans have announced their intents to retire in 2022, including Senators Rob Portman of Ohio, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, and Richard Burr of North Carolina. Along with the 2020 Democratic pickups in Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock is up for a full term in 2022, which the Republicans will be fighting vigorously to take back. The most vulnerable swing states for the Republican Party happen to be those who have announced their retirements, including Wisconsin. The Democrats have an opportunity to gain up to 2 seats with more than a 50 percent probability, but if they overperform, they can gain up to 4.

In 2018, the Democrats took the House from the Republicans while the Republicans gained 2 seats in the Senate from the Democrats. 2022 can have the potential to bring the exact opposite of 2018’s results. As more Senators announce their intentions to run for re-election or not, more predictions will be made on the outcome of who will hold the majority of the Senate.